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Want to know how to implement AI and automation in your basketball league? Join our webinar on Weds, 17th Sept,

Every game tells a story. And every shot makes up part of that story.  
Now, with tracking data and sophisticated AI technology, we’re able to lift the veil on the most engaging moments, calculating shot success in real-time and bringing it to life for fans via broadcast and highlights.  
Real-time shot probability has been integrated across football and basketball, from alternate broadcasts in the Premier League to displays at the FIBA U19 Basketball World Cup and analysis in the WNBA.  
Here’s how it works. 
<h3>Capture </h3>
It all begins with capture. Our computer vision cameras map every player, every run, and every ball trajectory.  
Layered on top, event data marks the exact moments – passes, dribbles, shots – that define the game. 
This combination, of mesh tracking data and accurate event data, creates a digital twin of the exact action on the pitch or court, in data form. 
But this isn’t just raw input. It’s a precise ecosystem that utilises machine learning models to ensure every acute detail is logged, verified, and understood. Without this foundation, nothing else is possible. 
<h3>Calculation </h3>
From here, <a href="https://www.geniussports.com/geniusiq/">GeniusIQ</a>, our large-scale data and AI layer, takes over—turning data into insight. 
For football, this means that at the moment of a shot, our proprietary expected goals (xG) model estimates its chance of hitting the net. More than 30 situational and spatial factors feed in: distance, angle, shot type, time on the ball, plus high-frequency tracking signals like defender positioning, goalkeeper reaction, and ball trajectory. We even account for the speed of defenders closing down the shot, to consider the extent to which the striker was under pressure or not. 
<div style="width: 1920px;" class="wp-video">
<video class="wp-video-shortcode" id="video-0-1" width="1920" height="1080" preload="metadata" controls="controls"><source type="video/mp4" src="https://cms.geniussports.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/20250704-FWCM-USAatCAN-rae-fiba-ShotAttempted-primary-477fed50_13566-13572_110_HD.mp4?_=1" /><a href="https://cms.geniussports.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/20250704-FWCM-USAatCAN-rae-fiba-ShotAttempted-primary-477fed50_13566-13572_110_HD.mp4">https://cms.geniussports.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/20250704-FWCM-USAatCAN-rae-fiba-ShotAttempted-primary-477fed50_13566-13572_110_HD.mp4</a></video></div>
On the basketball court, it’s a similar situation. Probability is based on the shooter’s location, orientation, and movement in the seconds before release, alongside defenders’ proximity and motion. Trained on thousands of historical games, GeniusIQ recognises the difference between a wide-open look and a tightly contested attempt. 
The result is a single number that feels natural to fans: a percentage chance that reflects the true difficulty of the shot. 
<h3>Display </h3>
Insight means little if it isn’t contexualised properly. That’s why we overlay shot probabilities seamlessly onto broadcasts and highlights – at just the right moment. 
In football, the LFP Data Zone and Premier League Data Zone broadcasts have shown fans the hidden dynamics behind every attempt. For clubs in the EFL, like <a href="https://x.com/IpswichTown/status/1958077657226080439">Ipswich Town</a> and Derby County, augmented highlights on social media have sparked new levels of fan engagement. 
<div style="width: 1920px;" class="wp-video"><video class="wp-video-shortcode" id="video-0-2" width="1920" height="1080" preload="metadata" controls="controls"><source type="video/mp4" src="https://cms.geniussports.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Arsenal-Aston-Villa-Jan-25-Watkins-Goal.mp4?_=2" /><a href="https://cms.geniussports.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Arsenal-Aston-Villa-Jan-25-Watkins-Goal.mp4">https://cms.geniussports.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Arsenal-Aston-Villa-Jan-25-Watkins-Goal.mp4</a></video></div>
In basketball, augmentations during <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kev_0MxTBaI">Lithuania’s King Mindaugas Cup</a> and the FIBA U19 World Cup gave audiences fresh perspectives—turning every jumper, layup, or three-pointer into a moment of data-driven storytelling. 
These visuals don’t distract from the game. They deepen it—bringing fans closer to the split-second realities that players face. 
<h3>Why it matters </h3>
Shot probability is more than a number. It’s the product of world-class data capture, and AI-powered modelling—delivered instantly into the broadcast experience. 
For leagues, it enhances storytelling. For fans, it sharpens appreciation of skill and difficulty. And for partners, it opens new ways to engage audiences with the drama of sport. 
From capture to calculation to display, every step is about clarity, unravelling the unknowns of the game in real-time.

Calculating shot probability: From raw data to broadcast insights

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