Trader's View | Low blocks, late winners and VAR: What’s the effect on World Cup trading?

We’re deep into the knockout rounds of the 2026 World Cup, in this edition of Trader’s View, Dmitri Agapov, Head of Trading, examines why traders need to keep a close eye on how VAR is evolving with the tournament, why low-block defences are frustrating favourites and the impact of 30 second-half stoppage-time goals.

I’ve been struck by how every round of this World Cup has introduced a new trend for traders.

Whether it’s the evolving use of VAR, the way underdogs have frustrated favourites with disciplined defensive displays, or the growing number of decisive goals arriving deep into stoppage time, the tournament has continually presented fresh challenges for trading teams.

With the quarter-finals getting underway on Thursday, it’s more important than ever for traders to recognise the patterns dictating the tournament. Here are the key trends I’ve been watching so far.

VAR is decisively impacting games

In the group stage, there were several examples of referees seemingly setting a higher threshold for VAR intervention, Ezri Konsa’s last-ditch tackle against Ghana and Pavlovic’s high foot in Ecuador’s match against Germany being notable examples.

As the tournament has progressed, however, VAR has at least felt more influential.

France were awarded a penalty following a VAR review after a clear foul on Désiré Doué. Croatia’s last-minute equaliser was ruled out following a VAR review aided by the new Snicko technology, while Jonathan Tah’s extra-time goal against Paraguay was also disallowed.

The threshold for VAR intervention appears increasingly flexible.

For traders, this presents a significant challenge. Every major tackle, penalty appeal and goal must be assessed in real time. Jarrel Quansah’s challenge against Mexico wasn’t initially given as a foul, but following a review was given as a red card.

In a low-scoring sport like football, these moments fundamentally alter pricing. Models need to account for the probability of VAR intervention because the impact on the remainder of the match can be enormous.

You need robust risk measures in place, ready to deploy immediately. The Genius Trading Console includes a Red Card Risk and VAR Risk feature that immediately updates pricing based on the likelihood of different outcomes and suspends markets based on each sportsbook customer’s suspension threshold.

Surprise draws, low blocks and player betting

At the end of the group stage, a viral social media post highlighted a bettor who backed the draw in every group-stage match, placing a $100 stake. 72 games later, and they were more than $2,000 in profit.

This trend continued in the Round of 32 with some surprise full-time results, namely Cape Verde taking Argentina to extra time, and Paraguay doing the same against Germany.

These surprise results have naturally been high-margin for bookmakers, although they’ve also prompted discussion around whether draw prices have been too short throughout the tournament.

Looking more closely at those matches, a clear pattern emerged during the group stage. Favourites dominated possession and created significantly more chances, only to be frustrated by organised opponents sitting deep in compact low blocks.

So what has changed in the knockout rounds? It’s been a mixed picture.

With every team needing to win, fewer sides have adopted ultra-defensive approaches, producing evenly contested matches.

In the two surprise knockout draws, shot volumes after 90 minutes were slightly lower than during the group stage before increasing significantly during extra time.

Meanwhile, player markets have been a different story. Messi, Mbappé and Haaland all sit on seven goals, with Kane close behind on six. These players attract huge betting volumes and often feature in price boosts and promo offers.

With Edge, our automated liability-driven odds solution, operators are able to optimise margin when one-sided betting occurs, such as on popular goalscorer and shots markets, delivering stable margin on every World Cup fixture.

Goals are flying in during 2nd half stoppage time

There have been 30 goals in second-half stoppage time at this tournament, with plenty of late drama in the knockout rounds; Spain, Portugal, Canada, Morocco and Brazil all eventually turning sustained pressure into late breakthroughs.

When you look across all 94 World Cup games so far, this has been true all tournament.

• There have been 30 goals scored in second-half stoppage time (90+), when you break it down on a per-minute basis based on average stoppage time, no other period of the game has been more likely to produce a goal.

• The 46-60 minute period has also seen a disproportionate number of goals, suggesting managers are having an immediate impact with their half-time tactical tweaks.

• The 76-90 minute period was relatively quiet during the group stage but has become far more productive in the knockout rounds as teams commit numbers forward in search of an equaliser.

Given how crucial market uptime is for in-play betting products, the late stoppage time excitement makes the quality of your modelling all the more important.

It’s why we rolled out a new stoppage time parameter as part of our in-play football service earlier this year. The functionality predicts expected stoppage time throughout the game, and works alongside our predictive Monte Carlo simulations to optimise pricing second-by-second.

It’s not over until the final whistle

n the previous edition of Trader’s View, I unpacked how hydration breaks have not produced dramatically longer stoppage times.

Diving deeper, traders should pay close attention to what happens after stoppage time begins.

• Average announced second-half stoppage time: 6 minutes 15 seconds

• Average actual second-half stoppage time: 7 minutes 19 seconds

In games where stoppage time is eventful, referees have consistently extended the game to compensate for delays caused by injuries, substitutions, VAR reviews and goal celebrations.

All these games had late goals and celebrations or VAR checks, with Portugal vs Croatia ultimately seeing almost nine additional minutes played beyond the original amount announced.

Without the right models and trading tooling, those additional nine minutes will have forced some operators to react quickly by manually adjusting pricing – or suspend altogether to protect against sharp money.

We’ll be back later in the tournament with more analysis. Remember to subscribe.